Israel faces a new long-term threat to its security as younger Western voters increasingly show declining support for the Jewish state. Polls indicate that younger Canadians, in particular, hold significantly different views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict compared to older generations. This trend, combined with growing pro-Palestinian sentiments and protests, poses challenges for Israel’s advocacy efforts and raises concerns within Jewish communities in Europe and North America. Additionally, the bipartisan nature of US support for Israel may be at risk as the Democratic Party shows signs of a pro-Palestinian shift among its base. CBC reported
For many years, Israelis have been warned about the threat of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. However, there is another growing concern that could undermine Israel’s security: a decline in support for the Jewish state among younger Western voters. Public opinion on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has always been influenced by significant events. For example, immediately after the massacre of Palestinian civilians in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in 1982, American support for Israel dropped by 17%. Following the Hamas massacre on October 7, support for military aid to Israel reached its highest level in years. However, these swings in public opinion tend to be temporary, and the long-term trends suggest a troubling shift.
Recent polls conducted in Canada have shown a stark difference in views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict between younger and older generations. Canadians under the age of 30 hold significantly different opinions compared to those aged 55 and over. Additionally, there is a noticeable gender divide, with men being more supportive of Israel on average. Pro-Palestinian protests across the West have shocked Israeli advocates, as they have mobilized larger numbers of people compared to pro-Israel demonstrations. The intensity and vitriol displayed during these protests have caught many by surprise. The Vice-President of the Palestinian Canadian Congress argues that the focus should not be on the few who express sympathy for Hamas but rather on the larger message of recognizing Palestinian rights.
Jewish communities in Europe and North America have reported an increasing fear of openly identifying as Jewish due to rising tensions. In France, where Jews were once the dominant group, they are now outnumbered by French Muslims at a ratio of approximately ten to one. Attempts to ban pro-Palestinian demonstrations after October 7 backfired, leading to even larger protests. This shift in the size of constituencies has impacted the public debate and raised concerns about the ability to maintain political support for Israel.
While the growth of Arab and Muslim populations in the West plays a role in the changing opinions, the generational divide is also significant. Younger Westerners are more critical of Israel and more supportive of the Palestinian cause compared to their parents and grandparents. This shift can be attributed to the influence of transnational progressivism, which resonates with young people due to its focus on human rights and intersectionality. Israel is often portrayed as a symbol of Western colonial imperialism that suppresses the rights of minority groups. However, this perception ignores the diversity within both the Jewish and Palestinian populations.
Proponents of the Palestinian cause argue that ordinary people recognize the violation of human rights in the Israeli government’s actions. They perceive attempts to ban marches and crackdowns on anti-Israel activism as signs of desperation by the Israel lobby. Polls indicate that ordinary Canadians across the political spectrum are more supportive of the Palestinian cause than the Canadian government. Younger Canadians view Israel’s offensive in Gaza as excessive and express greater sympathy for the Palestinians. A growing number of Canadians see Israel as a state with segregation similar to apartheid.
One demographic that poses a particular concern for Israel’s supporters is the U.S. Democratic Party. The bipartisan support for Israel has been a crucial pillar of its security, as U.S. support has been consistent, regardless of whether a Democrat or a Republican is in office. However, recent divisions within the Democratic Party, particularly regarding the censure of Rep. Rashida Tlaib, have revealed a stronger pro-Palestinian caucus and a less favorable view of Israel among the voting base. While Israel still enjoys solid support among elected Democrats, polls indicate a decline in support among rank-and-file voters.
In conclusion, Israel’s security is facing a potential threat from the declining support and sympathy for the Jewish state among younger Western voters. The generational divide, along with demographic shifts and changing public opinion, is eroding the foundations of Israel’s security. It is crucial for Israel and its advocates to address these concerns and engage in open dialogue to bridge the gaps and ensure continued support for the Jewish state..